O próprio idealizador do modelo de cálculo do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) já avisava sobre o perigo de se fetichizar o número resultante como se ele se tratasse de uma realidade concreta; pior, como se a dimensão do crescimento dele fosse um fim em si.
Os EUA do período Clinton, com sua exuberância irracional, são dos melhores exemplos de por quê crescimento do PIB não é necessariamente algo tão bom assim. Durante o período, apesar de uma das mais longas fases ininterruptas de crescimento do PIB na história daquele país, a renda mediana - isto é, 50% da população recebe menos, 50% recebe mais - permaneceu estagnada, enquanto a infraestrutura pública se degradava. O "crescimento" beneficiou aos mais ricos, mas não foi tão útil assim pra maioria da população americana. Já tem economista que de socialista não tem nada propondo a substituição da renda per capita pela renda mediana como cálculo da riqueza, por isso mesmo.
Não é o caso do Brasil de Lula. Pelo contrário, pela primeira vez na hiftória defte paíf são justamente os mais pobres que estão vendo sua renda aumentar mais. É um testamento à desigualdade de renda brasileira que o crescimento chinês da renda dos 20% mais pobres não resulte em crescimento tão alto assim do PIB total.
Mas o Brasil-PT se aproxima muito mais de outro caso de fetichismo pelo crescimento econômico, que são os países anteriormente ditos comunistas. Isso porque, afinal, "entre um cerradinho e a soja, Lula é soja." Não se dá conta, portanto, que o cerradinho, o açozinho, ou o que quer que seja zinho - zinho, no caso, significa megaempreendimentos - tem efeitos negativos que, muitas vezes, ultrapassam de muito os efeitos positivos. Até, a longo prazo, pode influenciar pra baixo o sacrossanto PIB. Uma previsão, baseada em investimentos anunciados, para o Brasil na próxima década:
a) O Brasil vai deixar de ser um país de eletricidade renovável.Em vários estados, mais de 90% da energia elétrica virá de fontes minerais.
b) A indústria pesqueira, tanto artesanal quanto comercial, vai entrar em colapso, com o represamento de rios e devastação de manguezais.
c) O Rio de Janeiro terá índices de poluição atmosférica dignos de cidade chinesa, com a resultante alta nas internações e mortalidade infantil.
d) A produtividade agrícola de muitas áreas vai baixar, com processos de desertificação e o fim dos serviços digrátish prestados pelas áreas de "pastagens degradadas" (ou seja, mato) às plantações vizinhas, como polinização e controle de pragas.
e) Com o corte de nascentes e afluentes, a disponibilidade de água para hidrelétricas irá baixar em até 30%.
31.7.08
25.7.08
The Goddamn Bushman
Eu bem queria dizer que era um primeiro sintoma da compra do Wall Street Journal pelo Rupert Murdoch (leia-se Fox News). Mas acontece que o WSJ sempre praticou uma separação bastante estrita entre suas páginas de noticiário - sempre tentando ser o mais corretas possíveis - e os editoriais e colunistas, que se mantém na fronteira mais longínqua do reacionarismo-tantã.
Mas mesmo sem ser sinal de nada, o artigo merece destaque, só pelo insólito da comparação. Bush, o vingador mascarado!
A cry for help goes out from a city beleaguered by violence and fear: A beam of light flashed into the night sky, the dark symbol of a bat projected onto the surface of the racing clouds . . .
Oh, wait a minute. That's not a bat, actually. In fact, when you trace the outline with your finger, it looks kind of like . . . a "W."
There seems to me no question that the Batman film "The Dark Knight," currently breaking every box office record in history, is at some level a paean of praise to the fortitude and moral courage that has been shown by George W. Bush in this time of terror and war. Like W, Batman is vilified and despised for confronting terrorists in the only terms they understand. Like W, Batman sometimes has to push the boundaries of civil rights to deal with an emergency, certain that he will re-establish those boundaries when the emergency is past.
And like W, Batman understands that there is no moral equivalence between a free society -- in which people sometimes make the wrong choices -- and a criminal sect bent on destruction. The former must be cherished even in its moments of folly; the latter must be hounded to the gates of Hell.
O outro pedaço maravilhoso do artigo é esse:
Why is it then that left-wingers feel free to make their films direct and realistic, whereas Hollywood conservatives have to put on a mask in order to speak what they know to be the truth? Why is it, indeed, that the conservative values that power our defense -- values like morality, faith, self-sacrifice and the nobility of fighting for the right -- only appear in fantasy or comic-inspired films like "300," "Lord of the Rings," "Narnia," "Spiderman 3" and now "The Dark Knight"?
The moment filmmakers take on the problem of Islamic terrorism in realistic films, suddenly those values vanish. The good guys become indistinguishable from the bad guys, and we end up denigrating the very heroes who defend us. Why should this be?
Tipo, a visão conservadora do mundo é aquela encontrada em revistas de super-heróis e contos de fadas? E isso é uma defesa do conservadorismo? O_O
Mas mesmo sem ser sinal de nada, o artigo merece destaque, só pelo insólito da comparação. Bush, o vingador mascarado!
A cry for help goes out from a city beleaguered by violence and fear: A beam of light flashed into the night sky, the dark symbol of a bat projected onto the surface of the racing clouds . . .
Oh, wait a minute. That's not a bat, actually. In fact, when you trace the outline with your finger, it looks kind of like . . . a "W."
There seems to me no question that the Batman film "The Dark Knight," currently breaking every box office record in history, is at some level a paean of praise to the fortitude and moral courage that has been shown by George W. Bush in this time of terror and war. Like W, Batman is vilified and despised for confronting terrorists in the only terms they understand. Like W, Batman sometimes has to push the boundaries of civil rights to deal with an emergency, certain that he will re-establish those boundaries when the emergency is past.
And like W, Batman understands that there is no moral equivalence between a free society -- in which people sometimes make the wrong choices -- and a criminal sect bent on destruction. The former must be cherished even in its moments of folly; the latter must be hounded to the gates of Hell.
O outro pedaço maravilhoso do artigo é esse:
Why is it then that left-wingers feel free to make their films direct and realistic, whereas Hollywood conservatives have to put on a mask in order to speak what they know to be the truth? Why is it, indeed, that the conservative values that power our defense -- values like morality, faith, self-sacrifice and the nobility of fighting for the right -- only appear in fantasy or comic-inspired films like "300," "Lord of the Rings," "Narnia," "Spiderman 3" and now "The Dark Knight"?
The moment filmmakers take on the problem of Islamic terrorism in realistic films, suddenly those values vanish. The good guys become indistinguishable from the bad guys, and we end up denigrating the very heroes who defend us. Why should this be?
Tipo, a visão conservadora do mundo é aquela encontrada em revistas de super-heróis e contos de fadas? E isso é uma defesa do conservadorismo? O_O
24.7.08
Schadenfreude é uma merda mais nóis gosta III
Lula acaba de não só anistiar o João Cândido como prometer que o próximo barquinho da marinha vai levar o nome dele.
Os milicos - que se deram ao trabalho até de publicar livro falando mal do cara, recentemente - devem ter amado.
Pessoalmente? Por mim renomeava-se o porta-aviões São Paulo com o nome dele...
Os milicos - que se deram ao trabalho até de publicar livro falando mal do cara, recentemente - devem ter amado.
Pessoalmente? Por mim renomeava-se o porta-aviões São Paulo com o nome dele...
19.7.08
Schadenfreude culpada II
Confesso que não consegui reprimir inteiramente minha Schadenfreude quando li a notícia sobre marinheiros espanhóis sequestrados por piratas. Afinal, os coitados dos marinheiros estavam se dedicando à pesca predatória, industrial e ilegal (mas à qual todos os governos envolvidos fecham os olhos) de atuns.
*************
Em outra notícia relacionada a violência, a economist critica Chávez por massagear os números relacionados ao tema na Venezuela. . Uma crítica inteiramente válida, e me pergunto como o fã-clube brasileiro do Chávez pensa o fato de a tática dele para enfrentar a violência é mais ou menos a mesma do Sérgio Cabral.
Só um detalhe é esquisito - por que será que os números massageados da Colômbia nunca foram criticados?
*************
Em outra notícia relacionada a violência, a economist critica Chávez por massagear os números relacionados ao tema na Venezuela. . Uma crítica inteiramente válida, e me pergunto como o fã-clube brasileiro do Chávez pensa o fato de a tática dele para enfrentar a violência é mais ou menos a mesma do Sérgio Cabral.
Só um detalhe é esquisito - por que será que os números massageados da Colômbia nunca foram criticados?
13.7.08
Mandato do Céu
Pensar nas pessoas comuns afetadas me corta a Schadenfreude por conta do annus horribilis do PCC. Mas uma parte de mim se pergunta - será que o Hu deveria começar a construir sua anta gigante? Será que eu deveria comprar ações de empresas fornecedoras de terracota?
Do Los Angeles Times:
BEIJING — First there was the freak snowstorm in February. Then the Tibetan riots in March. Then in rapid succession the controversial torch relay, Sichuan earthquake, widespread flooding and an algae bloom that's tarnishing the Olympic sailing venue. Just when it seemed that nothing else could go wrong this year in China, the locusts arrived.
Locusts? What is going on here? The litany of near-biblical woes would seem to lack only a famine, frogs and smiting of the first born.
The Middle Kingdom's parade of problems has threatened to put a major damper on China's anticipated moment of glory less than five weeks before the start of the 2008 Beijing Games.
"This sure has been a weird year," said Ma Zhijie, 20, who works in a coffee shop. "There are so many disasters, it's hard to know what's happening."
Authorities have been working overtime to tackle, contain and spin their way out of each new setback. But the volume of calamities this year would challenge any government, let alone one that has staked so much on pulling off the perfect Olympic Games.
This week, China sent out an all-points bulletin for exterminators. About 33,000 professional pest killers were quickly dispatched to Inner Mongolia in hope of preventing a cloud of locusts from descending on Beijing during the Games.
The vermin apparently hatched a month early because of warmer-than-usual weather and already have eaten their way through 3.2 million acres of grassland in three areas of the countryside. With the capital only a few hundred miles away and the Chinese leadership in no mood to take chances, about 200 tons of pesticide, 100,000 sprayers and four aircraft have been thrown into this battle against the bugs.
"To ensure a smooth Olympic Games and stable agricultural production, we have launched a full prevention plan to prevent and control further locust migration," Bao Xiang, head of the badly hit Xilingol League grassland work station, told the state-run New China News Agency.
Though China's response to some of the year's crises was sluggish, by the time the magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck Sichuan province in May the government was able to mount a rapid and effective response.
"All the disasters this year have certainly given the government lots of practice at crisis management," said Peng Zongchao, a public policy professor at Beijing's Qinghua University. "Some have been natural, some man-made, some related to health, some to social security."
China is no stranger to disasters, natural or man-made. But such a series of woes in this high-profile year has fanned rumors and superstition in a nation where people pay huge sums for lucky license plate numbers and feng shui consultants are in high demand.
China has sought to bank as much good luck as possible before the Olympics next month. The opening ceremony begins at 8:08 p.m. on the eighth day of the eighth month of 2008. Eight is considered a lucky number by the Chinese because in Mandarin the number sounds like the word for "prosperity."
Also, the government built the Olympic Village on a meridian directly north of Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City, consistent with Beijing's core feng shui principles.
These supplications to the gods of fortune by an officially atheist Communist government, however, apparently weren't enough. This year has also seen sharply rising prices, a falling stock market, an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and a major train collision.
The killing of six policemen in Shanghai this week and a riot involving as many as 30,000 people in Guizhou province, southwest of Beijing, after the mysterious death of a high school girl have raised fears of more problems.
For the leaders, this bad patch is more than something to shake their heads over. The nation's 5,000-year history is littered with dynasties that collapsed because the population believed leaders had lost the "mandate of heaven."
Among the Internet search terms restricted in recent months include those linking the earthquake to the curse of heaven, "the anger by the heaven" or the change of dynasty.
"There's no such thing as luck, these are just natural disasters," said Zhao Shu, a researcher in the Beijing Literature and Historical Research Institute. "These rumors will be disproved over time."
But some say the government may share the blame.
"Officials have picked up stones to hit their own feet," said Zhou Xiaozheng, a sociologist at People's University in Beijing, citing a Chinese proverb. "Even as they decry rumors and superstition surrounding all this bad news, they laid the groundwork with their focus on 8s and by calling the Olympic torch a sacred flame. Now common people are throwing it back at them."
Some rumormongers say that the three numbers of the date of the earthquake, 5/12, add up to eight, which evokes prosperity, but it also sounds like the word for "handcuffs."
Internet postings have even started linking the five Chinese Olympic mascots, known as fuwa or "friendly children," to inauspicious events:
Beibei, a blue fish-like creature, is linked to June floods in the south that killed 176 people and affected 43 million.
Jingjing, who resembles a panda, represents the quake that killed at least 85,000 in Sichuan, where most pandas live.
Yingying, a Tibetan antelope, is tied to the unrest in Lhasa, the capital of the mountainous region.
Flame-headed Huanhuan is linked to the torch protests.
And Nini, a swallow with a headdress that looks like a kite, is said to represent a major train crash in April in an eastern city known for its kites.
"What can you do," said Liu Feng, 39, a salesman. "Some people are superstitious and some are not. China always has disasters"
Do Los Angeles Times:
BEIJING — First there was the freak snowstorm in February. Then the Tibetan riots in March. Then in rapid succession the controversial torch relay, Sichuan earthquake, widespread flooding and an algae bloom that's tarnishing the Olympic sailing venue. Just when it seemed that nothing else could go wrong this year in China, the locusts arrived.
Locusts? What is going on here? The litany of near-biblical woes would seem to lack only a famine, frogs and smiting of the first born.
The Middle Kingdom's parade of problems has threatened to put a major damper on China's anticipated moment of glory less than five weeks before the start of the 2008 Beijing Games.
"This sure has been a weird year," said Ma Zhijie, 20, who works in a coffee shop. "There are so many disasters, it's hard to know what's happening."
Authorities have been working overtime to tackle, contain and spin their way out of each new setback. But the volume of calamities this year would challenge any government, let alone one that has staked so much on pulling off the perfect Olympic Games.
This week, China sent out an all-points bulletin for exterminators. About 33,000 professional pest killers were quickly dispatched to Inner Mongolia in hope of preventing a cloud of locusts from descending on Beijing during the Games.
The vermin apparently hatched a month early because of warmer-than-usual weather and already have eaten their way through 3.2 million acres of grassland in three areas of the countryside. With the capital only a few hundred miles away and the Chinese leadership in no mood to take chances, about 200 tons of pesticide, 100,000 sprayers and four aircraft have been thrown into this battle against the bugs.
"To ensure a smooth Olympic Games and stable agricultural production, we have launched a full prevention plan to prevent and control further locust migration," Bao Xiang, head of the badly hit Xilingol League grassland work station, told the state-run New China News Agency.
Though China's response to some of the year's crises was sluggish, by the time the magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck Sichuan province in May the government was able to mount a rapid and effective response.
"All the disasters this year have certainly given the government lots of practice at crisis management," said Peng Zongchao, a public policy professor at Beijing's Qinghua University. "Some have been natural, some man-made, some related to health, some to social security."
China is no stranger to disasters, natural or man-made. But such a series of woes in this high-profile year has fanned rumors and superstition in a nation where people pay huge sums for lucky license plate numbers and feng shui consultants are in high demand.
China has sought to bank as much good luck as possible before the Olympics next month. The opening ceremony begins at 8:08 p.m. on the eighth day of the eighth month of 2008. Eight is considered a lucky number by the Chinese because in Mandarin the number sounds like the word for "prosperity."
Also, the government built the Olympic Village on a meridian directly north of Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City, consistent with Beijing's core feng shui principles.
These supplications to the gods of fortune by an officially atheist Communist government, however, apparently weren't enough. This year has also seen sharply rising prices, a falling stock market, an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and a major train collision.
The killing of six policemen in Shanghai this week and a riot involving as many as 30,000 people in Guizhou province, southwest of Beijing, after the mysterious death of a high school girl have raised fears of more problems.
For the leaders, this bad patch is more than something to shake their heads over. The nation's 5,000-year history is littered with dynasties that collapsed because the population believed leaders had lost the "mandate of heaven."
Among the Internet search terms restricted in recent months include those linking the earthquake to the curse of heaven, "the anger by the heaven" or the change of dynasty.
"There's no such thing as luck, these are just natural disasters," said Zhao Shu, a researcher in the Beijing Literature and Historical Research Institute. "These rumors will be disproved over time."
But some say the government may share the blame.
"Officials have picked up stones to hit their own feet," said Zhou Xiaozheng, a sociologist at People's University in Beijing, citing a Chinese proverb. "Even as they decry rumors and superstition surrounding all this bad news, they laid the groundwork with their focus on 8s and by calling the Olympic torch a sacred flame. Now common people are throwing it back at them."
Some rumormongers say that the three numbers of the date of the earthquake, 5/12, add up to eight, which evokes prosperity, but it also sounds like the word for "handcuffs."
Internet postings have even started linking the five Chinese Olympic mascots, known as fuwa or "friendly children," to inauspicious events:
Beibei, a blue fish-like creature, is linked to June floods in the south that killed 176 people and affected 43 million.
Jingjing, who resembles a panda, represents the quake that killed at least 85,000 in Sichuan, where most pandas live.
Yingying, a Tibetan antelope, is tied to the unrest in Lhasa, the capital of the mountainous region.
Flame-headed Huanhuan is linked to the torch protests.
And Nini, a swallow with a headdress that looks like a kite, is said to represent a major train crash in April in an eastern city known for its kites.
"What can you do," said Liu Feng, 39, a salesman. "Some people are superstitious and some are not. China always has disasters"
4.7.08
Potemkin tupiniquim quim quim
O príncipe, na verdade, foi um ingênuo. Para ele, a opção a mujiques famintos e maltrapilhos eram mujiques gordos e felizes. As grandes desapropriações de áreas urbanas, seja em meio a processos de "revitalização" ou para a sacrossantíssima infraestrutura, e as justificativas dadas para elas, mostram que os governantes e a classe "média" preferem é não ver mujique nenhum.
Do Valor Econômico de hoje:
O porto de Santos prepara-se para oferecer mais quatro berços para operação de navios de contêineres, o que representará acréscimo de cerca de um milhão de Teus (sigla em inglês para unidades de 20 pés) à sua atual capacidade de três milhões. Em 2007, o porto movimentou 2,5 milhões dessas unidades, com expectativa de crescimento de 3% este ano. Os investimentos em infra-estrutura para deixar o local em condições de licitação são de US$ US$ 515 milhões.
O projeto prevê a desocupação de uma área total 541 mil m2, ocupadas por favelas, e a transferência de 2,5 mil famílias do local. A Companhia Docas do Estado de São Paulo (Codesp) e a prefeitura de Guarujá assinaram um acordo nesse sentido. Esta operação contará com recursos do Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC), da ordem de R$ 107 milhões, por meio de convênio com a Caixa Econômica Federal.
As áreas denominadas de Prainha e Conceiçãozinha chegam até o estuário de Santos e provocam impacto negativo à navegação internacional e turística, pela sua extrema precariedade. Elas são vizinhas, respectivamente, do Terminal de Exportação de Veículos (TEV) da Santos Brasil, que detém o maior volume de operações conteinerizadas do país, e da Cargill, que opera com granéis sólidos. O mercado de contêineres em Santos, que inclui a margem esquerda, pelo lado de Guarujá, é disputado, pelo menos por mais três empresas: Libra, Tecondi e Rodrimar.
Há negociações no sentido de levar as famílias transferidas para o Parque da Montanha, no Distrito de Vicente de Carvalho, que contará com casas novas de alvenaria. De forma concomitante, a Codesp se propõe a repassar ao município outra área, fora da zona portuária, por onde passa a linha de transmissão de energia elétrica da usina de Itatinga (Bertioga) ao porto. A área será aterrada e posta em condições para receber edificações.
Do Valor Econômico de hoje:
O porto de Santos prepara-se para oferecer mais quatro berços para operação de navios de contêineres, o que representará acréscimo de cerca de um milhão de Teus (sigla em inglês para unidades de 20 pés) à sua atual capacidade de três milhões. Em 2007, o porto movimentou 2,5 milhões dessas unidades, com expectativa de crescimento de 3% este ano. Os investimentos em infra-estrutura para deixar o local em condições de licitação são de US$ US$ 515 milhões.
O projeto prevê a desocupação de uma área total 541 mil m2, ocupadas por favelas, e a transferência de 2,5 mil famílias do local. A Companhia Docas do Estado de São Paulo (Codesp) e a prefeitura de Guarujá assinaram um acordo nesse sentido. Esta operação contará com recursos do Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento (PAC), da ordem de R$ 107 milhões, por meio de convênio com a Caixa Econômica Federal.
As áreas denominadas de Prainha e Conceiçãozinha chegam até o estuário de Santos e provocam impacto negativo à navegação internacional e turística, pela sua extrema precariedade. Elas são vizinhas, respectivamente, do Terminal de Exportação de Veículos (TEV) da Santos Brasil, que detém o maior volume de operações conteinerizadas do país, e da Cargill, que opera com granéis sólidos. O mercado de contêineres em Santos, que inclui a margem esquerda, pelo lado de Guarujá, é disputado, pelo menos por mais três empresas: Libra, Tecondi e Rodrimar.
Há negociações no sentido de levar as famílias transferidas para o Parque da Montanha, no Distrito de Vicente de Carvalho, que contará com casas novas de alvenaria. De forma concomitante, a Codesp se propõe a repassar ao município outra área, fora da zona portuária, por onde passa a linha de transmissão de energia elétrica da usina de Itatinga (Bertioga) ao porto. A área será aterrada e posta em condições para receber edificações.
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